Over the past few days an elaborate new on-line narrative has been gaining traction. It proposes that the death of George Floyd was a staged incident. Another claim is that Derek Chauvin, the Minneapolis police officer who arrested George Floyd is not the person currently in police custody and that the police officer seen in the images is, rather, the actor Benjamin Ray Bailey.
Image 1: Sample content misidentifying Derek Chauvin as the actor Benjamin Ray Bailey
Image 2: The results of various video analytics on the images of Derek Chauvin and Benjamin Ray Bailey
Regardless of the rationale behind this publication, O fellow fish citizens: beware of the bait! Hopefully the following conclusive results will put this little conspiracy to rest.
The Person of Interest 1 F (POI-1 F) identified as Derek Chauvin in the police booking images matched within 99% certainty the image of the uniformed police officer seen in the video kneeling on George Floyd.
POI-1 F matched within 99% certainty the image of POI-2 identified as Derek Chauvin in the police booking images.
The ear geometry of POI-1 S identified in the police booking images as Derek Chauvin matched the officer in uniform seen kneeling on George Floyd within 97% certainty.
The height of the officer seen kneeling on George Floyd is ~ 5’-9”. This did not match the height of Benjamin Ray Bailey who is ~ 6’-6”.
Benjamin Bailey’s image did not match the image of the officer in uniform seen kneeling on George Floyd.
The ear geometry of Benjamin Bailey (OOI-2) did not match the ear geometry of OOI-1 in the image of POI-1 S identified in the police booking images as Derek Chauvin.
Note on Image Sourcing: All Derek Chauvin’s images were acquired from the following primary sources. All images were tested for deepfake content and post editing.
Booking photos taken on on May 29, 2020, at the Ramsey County Sheriff’s Office
Booking photos taken on May 30, 2020, at the Hennepin County Jail
Booking photos taken on May 31, 2020, at the Oak Park Minnesota Correctional Facility
Minnesota beauty pageant competition footage recorded on June 23, 2018
What is a Discreditation Operation? Information discreditation is a form of character assassination and black propaganda. It entails the deliberate production and publication of information that is either completely or partially false and the distribution of such misinformation on various on-line or print platforms. Soon after the misinformation starts showing up in derivative works and news feeds, or reaches a certain level of engagement, the fabricator will point out the false information and use it to attack the credibility of the individual(s) who referenced it. The end result is that the false information ends up discrediting the people who shared and used it. Fact checker organizations like Snopes.com and Factcheck.org, are some of the largest producers of this type of content.
Image 3: Example of discreditation content currently in wide circulation
The use of discreditation techniques can be illustrated via some of the QAnon affiliated user content on social media and how its being leveraged to censor conservative political speech. Platforms like Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube permit vile anti-Semitic, anti-Catholic, and pro-jihadi materials to circulate widely for months on their platforms (this is despite the fact that they have the AI to instantly intercept and block it). As these materials spread throughout various communities and gain traction, the platforms take note of the users that view it and then censor them on the grounds that they are affiliated with the conspiratorial materials.
As many conservative users have discovered over the past three years, they don’t have to post anything controversial to get banned. Their only crime is that they viewed ‘subversive’ materials (which ironically, at least some them are produced by US based progressive propagandists as bait). Suspiciously, these propagandist continue to operate on these platforms even after the legitimate users are banned.
Image 5: A profile of a Russian US based influence operations on several QAnon associated social media channels
Image 6: Sample content and members of one of several US based ‘progressive’ and Russian propaganda teams operating on QAnon affiliated Facebook, Twitter, and YouTub networks. Of interest is the “Putin personality cult” propaganda published by some operators in early-mid 2016, long before the QAnon movement started.
Image 7: The mysterious case of Jason Gelinas, a Citigroup tech executive by day and a QAnnon administrator at night and weekends. Gelinas’s progressive linkages, social network, and on-line activity don’t match the early 2017 QAnon style and form. It is likely that the content that Gelinas is aggregating/generating on his Qmap.pub site is either a honeypot or a large scale discreditation operation in the style of ‘Trust Sessions’
Image 8: Sample content distributed via a QAnon associated Facebook and YouTube networks. A radio Interview with a Rabbi Abraham Finkelstein (the photo is a repurposed image of an attorney named Kenneth Weinberg). This hoax interview was produced in 2001 by the James Wickstrom. In the interview, the fictitious New York Rabbi admits to murdering between 100K-300K children per year in the US in order to first use their blood to make Passover bread, and then sell their bodies to McDonalds so they can be made into burgers and sausages. This posting has been on YouTube since September 27, 2019. It has been viewed over 227K times and has 2,075 comments.
*** Update 06/12/2020 *** Apparently, the current Derek Chauvin conspiracy theory has spawned another conspiracy theory which claims that George Floyd’s fiancé, Courtney Ross, is actually Derek Chauvin. Running the analytics on her verified image shows that the image of Courtney does not match Chauvin on gender, age, nor facial features.
Image 9: The results of various video analytics comparing the images of Courtney Ross and Derek Chauven
“There are six things that the Lord hates, seven that are an abomination to him: haughty eyes, a lying tongue, and hands that shed innocent blood, a heart that devises wicked plans, feet that make haste to run to evil, a false witness who breathes out lies, and one who sows discord among brothers.” Proverbs 6:16-19
I am at a loss to explain why neither one of you has been fired, resigned in disgrace, been arrested, or why you Mr. Cuomo haven’t been impeached yet. Somehow, all three of you have managed to maintain your poorly deserved prestige and professional licenses, and you continue to brightly shine in the daily MSM briefings. This defies all logic as any other public servant responsible for what you have done by now would have been labeled with the shameful stains of negligence, greed, and cowardice—but not you!
Despite your misconduct and total dereliction of duties, you still remain inexplicably unscathed. But what this wretched Covid-19 affair has cast on your reputation won’t wash away with spin, brevity, or jokes.
Image 1: May 21, 2020, the Cuomos Covid-19 comedy hour on CNN
You recently issued another administrative directive, or, might I say, royal proclamation befitting a tyrannical monarch not accountable to anyone nor the law of the land. This order reversed your previous decree that all hospitals can transfer Covid-19 patients directly to nursing homes and care facilities. This is an affirmation of the criminal act which resulted in the deaths of over 6,000 (more likely double that figure) patients in the New York state and continues even now at the rate of 10-30 per day.
Image 2: Howard A. Zucker, the over-credentialed high priest of the medical intelligentsia and the New York Commissioner of Health, getting more useless degrees and telling the world how he eradicated the Zika and Ebola viruses. Zucker was the leading NYS medical authority to sign the nursing home death warrant directive
History shall record that it was the following perverse order that led New York state to commit a heinous crime against the weakest and most vulnerable members of our society:
“No resident shall be denied re-admission or admission to the NH solely based on a confirmed or suspected diagnosis of COVID-19. NHs are prohibited from requiring a hospitalized resident who is determined medically stable to be tested for COVID-19 prior to admission or readmission.”
Image 3: The New York Department of Health directive to move Covid-19 patients from hospital to nursing home and the prohibition against requiring testing prior to admission
Even if your vile enablers at CNN and NYT suppress the truth for a while longer, you can be certain that what you have plotted in the dark will be revealed in the daylight, and what you have schemed in the inner rooms will be proclaimed from the rooftops. Since you have subverted all channels of justice, it should now be the duty of every resident in the state to speak out and not become an accomplice in this crime.
And it is to the three of you that I shall proclaim this with all the revulsion that a man can summon with the written word:
You were aware of the potential devastating consequences of your directive prior to your actions—but you issued the directive nevertheless. To whom if not to you, Governor Cuomo, the first magistrate of the state of New York, shall I reveal the treacherous nature of your band of Ivy league credentialed thugs?
Image 4: New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and Howard Zucker, the New York Commissioner of Health spreading Covid-19 disinformation
At the root of it all are the three of you: Andrew M. Cuomo Governor, Howard A. Zucker, Commissioner of Health, and Sally Dreslin, Executive Deputy Commissioner of Health. You, your media accomplices, and your healthcare industry ‘donors’ are the prime movers behind the death sentence that you pronounced on the thousands of high risk elderly New Yorkers.
I realize that at the end of the day, Governor Cuomo, you are a just a manipulative, soulless political opportunist who believes that there are no limits to what you and your entourage can do and get away with. Nonetheless, you are still accountable to G-d—to whom you will ultimately have to answer. I have not despaired of the triumph of justice, in this case, I believe with the strongest conviction that truth is on the march and neither you nor your wicked lot can stop it. The positions are clear: on one side are your legions of darkness that will do all in their power to subvert the truth; on the other side is the army of light who will fight to expose it.
With the truth in mind, I level these charges against you:
I accuse you and your cohorts of being the diabolical masterminds of this death directive and of covering your dirty deeds by all manners of evil machinations.
I accuse you of inflicting through your directives untold emotional pain, suffering, and psychological distress on thousands of family members and front line medical workers at nursing homes.
I accuse you of one of the greatest instances of incompetence and medical malpractice in recorded history.
I accuse you of professional negligence raising to the level of criminal negligence and manslaughter.
I accuse you of surreptitiously passing immunity legislation to protect yourselves and your allies from prosecution and in so doing being guilty of conspiracy and crimes against humanity.
I accuse you of complicity in a crime that was driven by financial, political, and professional greed.
I accuse you of violating public trust by hiding, subverting, and suppressing evidence that show your culpability in these crimes.
I accuse you of conducting a fraudulent inquiry by which I mean a biased root cause analysis of the nursing home deaths and then redirecting/misdirecting blame to the frontline medical staff, patient families, ‘CDC directives’, and G-d.
I accuse you of creating and referencing reports and medical data that were deceitful including deliberately exaggerating the need for 30,000 ventilators and claiming that NY hospitals could not handle Covid-19 patients.
I accuse you of conspiring with media outlets like NYT and CNN to conduct political influence operations against the residents of New York state and a campaign to mislead the public and cover up your wrongdoings.
I accuse the New York State justice system including judges and DAs and law enforcement in the local jurisdictions where these crimes took place of facilitating a judicial homicide by failing to stop these crimes and investigate and persecute the guilty parties.
As for the people I am accusing, I have never met them nor do I bear them any personal ill will. To me they are mere tools, corrupt grifters, purveyors of evil, instruments of greed, and agents of harm to our society. I am taking this measure to hasten their exposure in the hope that by doing so, tens of thousands of innocent crime victims and their families will find some solace and the justice they deserve.
In 1690, John Locke wrote:
“…where the body of the people, or any single man, is deprived of their right, or is under the exercise of a power without right, and have no appeal on earth, then they have a liberty to appeal to heaven…”
Three hundred and thirty years later, this is the appeal to heaven from thousands of innocent victims.
The Hidden $$$ Trail Behind Cuomo’s Covid-19 Directives In 2018, as Governor Andrew Cuomo faced a challenge to his reelection bid in the New York State Democratic primary, he got a last minute $1m cash infusion from the General New York Hospital Association (GNYHA)—a powerful NY healthcare industry group. On April 2, 2020, he repaid the favor when he quietly signed legislation shielding hospital and nursing home executives from any lawsuits stemming from the Covid-19 outbreak. The clauses, inserted into the annual budget bill, gave blanket immunity protections for healthcare industry executive and administrators, the same individuals and institutions that have made a fortune moving sick Covid-19 patients from the hospitals to nursing homes and long term care facilities.
What was the end result from the nursing homes front lines? Rampant and improperly rationed shortage of all PPE supplies, a blind eye turned to the possible presence of the virus by not testing patients and staff, requiring sick staff to return to work before 14 full days of quarantine—after as little as two days fever free, irresponsibly mixing the healthy with the sick, ZERO infectious disease control trainings for staff. And that’s just the short list.
Cuomo’s legal immunity legislation didn’t just happen in a vacuum. It turns out that GNYHA gave Cuomo’s New York State Democratic committee large donations which were deposited into his party’s housekeeping account and used to bankroll his re-election. The money among other things was used to buy TV ads to support his proposed budget, launch his progressive anti-gun crusade, and his 2018 campaign.
The 2018 GNYHA donation is an anomaly because it shows a massive (almost a four hundred percent increase) in donations from 2017. This move strongly suggest that the hospitals and nursing homes funding GNYHA were planning to cash in their donation through some favorable legislation or state action.
Chart 1: GNYHA historical New York state campaign donations
Tracing the donations shows that GNYHA affiliates gave over $900K directly to Cuomo’s campaign. In total, Cuomo and the NYS democratic party committee (which he controlled) received close to $2.3m from various hospitals and nursing home donors.
Image 5: Sample extract of 2018 campaign donations to Andrew Cuomo by NY hospitals and nursing homes
‘La Famiglia’, The Cuomo’s DeRosa Connection According to the New York Public Committee on Public Ethics, GNYHA paid $60,000 to the MirRam Group in March-April 2020, according to the firm’s report. John Emrick, a lobbyist at the firm previously served as the chief of staff for the Independent Democratic Conference state senate caucus, lobbying the Senate majority leader’s office on “safe staffing” and “medical malpractice”.
Another GNYHA lobby firm, the Bolton-St Johns, gave Cuomo’s campaign $40,000 during his 2018 re-election. That firm employs Giorgio DeRosa, Joseph DeRosa, and Jessica Davos–the father, brother, and sister-law who is Cuomo’s current secretary and top aid, Melissa DeRosa.
Following a typical plot line of The Sopranos, it is not surprising that the linkage analysis confirmed that Giorgio and Joseph DeRosa were listed as lobbyists in GNYHA state disclosure forms for years, including when Melissa DeRosa was serving as Cuomo’s chief of staff and after she was promoted to his top aid.
Yup, you read it correctly. Giorgio’s daughter Melissa was Cuomo’s gate keeper when GNYHA was throwing millions at Cuomo’s via the lobbying efforts of her father.
Image 7: How Cuomo’s political greed machine and his GNYHA healthcare industry backers created the perfect death storm in NYS nursing homes
What Cuomo knew about the Covid-19 risks and what officials in other states do May 27, 2020 Cuomo’s advice to a friend about sending their elderly parents to a nursing home “You have a vulnerable person best to keep them at home… Keep them in a situation where you have the most control. That is the blunt truth. That’s what I would do with my mother.”
The Covid-19 healthcare industry economic bubble The sudden outset and rapid spread of the Covid-19 virus created an economic bubble for several healthcare industry verticals. medical equipment suppliers, hospitals, and nursing homes were able (with the full political backing of the state) to create artificial equipment shortages and inflate the prices for services by factors of 2x-6x. The following table illustrates identical treatment/services and their costs before and after the Covid-19 outbreak.
Treatment or Service
One day in an intensive care unit (ICU)
Daily treatment and medicine for heart, kidney, and lungs related complications
One day of ventilator use
Total for one day of treatment
Table 1: Covid-19 related treatments/services and their costs (based on the billing schedule of the Swedish Health Services hospital network)
Copyright 2020 Yaacov Apelbaum, All Rights Reserved.
A family member in the medical field recently voiced frustration about the low quality of some non-contact infrared thermometers they received. It seem that the entire batch yields consistently lower temperatures when compared to oral thermometers.
I thought that this was strange. Typically, instruments for medical use are certified for accuracy prior to shipment. Considering that these devices come with a certificate of calibration, I reasoned that they shouldn’t produce such discrepancies. Early detection of the onset of high fever is a key factor in Covid-19 patient care. The ability to accurately track body temperature is also critical in determining if a patient is contagious and would trigger decisions regarding treatment, quarantine, and use of PPE gear.
Just like in the case of a faulty car speedometer that displays lower speeds and results in speeding tickets, the usage of faulty thermometers that consistently show lower temperatures can have a detrimental effect on patients and medical staff. Considering that we are in the midst of a severe flu outbreak, I decided to take a closer look. IR thermometers are relatively simple devices that can be easily disassembled and tested, so, I spent a few hours this weekend in the lab digging into the Chinese IR thermometer mystery.
Possible Reasons for Inaccurate IR Thermometer Readings I do considerable amount of work in the the lab and have at times ran into equipment gremlins. In most cases, there is a simple non-mystical explanation for why test equipment fails. In the case of an IR thermometer this can include:
The instrument is within the actual variance of its stated accuracy
The instrument has faulty firmware, sensor, logic circuitry, or other board components
The instrument is not being used correctly
There are some unusual environmental conditions that effect the measurement (i.e. humidity)
The instrument wasn’t calibrated prior to shipment
The instruments detection range doesn’t cover the object temperate
Test Specimens For the test samples I’ve selected the top of the line IR thermometers, all in the $60-$140 price range. There are many cheaper units on the market, but, I deliberately went with the higher-end devices because they claim to have been calibrated and certified, to be “Built for Accuracy”, and be “CE FCC RoHS FDA” approved.
Image 1: The IR thermometers used in the evaluation
To keep the test conclusive, I avoided complex correlations of skin to core body temperate or evaluating the thermometer accuracy across a wide range of surfaces and temperate ranges. All of my testing was done in a controlled environment with respect to humidity and temperature and followed an identical sequence of repeatable steps.
Image 2: The test setup
The Testing Procedure
The IR thermometer was kept at room temperature on the workbench where the test was conducted.
Unit emissivity was set to the range of 0.95-0.97.
The lens was cleaned before each measurement.
Distance to Target ratio was kept constant and followed the manufacturer’s recommendation for each unit.
The IR thermometer was held in a bracket and the lens was pointed at a 90° angle from the surface.
Each IR thermometer executed 20 consecutive readings with 5 second lap between each reading.
All measurements were taken at the same location about 1/2” off the inner canthus eye area.
Image 3: Test measurement location and thermal distribution on the human face
Test Results All of the Chinese made thermometers exhibited a wide range of results. They were inconsistent, fluctuating by as much as 5 degrees between consecutive measurements and frequently erred on the colder side. The Fluke 62 Max IR thermometer performed in a consistent predictable manner and passed the ‘Ice Water’ and ‘Infrared Comparator Cup’ tests within stated tolerances. All four Chinese made IR thermometers failed to pass both of these tests.
Of note is the high-low temperature variation pattern of the Chinese made thermometers. The test population indicates that all four devices were at times able to detect skin temperate of about 96F, but its unclear whey they didn’t do so in a consistent manner.
Chart 1: The results of 20 consecutive skin temperature readouts for the five IR thermometers. A normal range range for skin temperature is 33.5C-36.9C or 92.3F-98.4F
Running 100 consecutive tests on one of the Chines made thermometers (the QJ-CWQ20) shows a distinctive cyclic pattern resembling the output exhibited by some sort of a pseudorandom number generator logic. This could be some sort of a leveling function, but it could also be an attempt by the firmware writer to compensate for poor sensor performance or an evasion mechanism–The IR thermometer equivalent of VW’s dieselgate.
Chart 2: The results of 100 consecutive skin temperature readouts from the QJ-CWQ20 IR thermometer.
Testing the performance of the thermopile detector (the IR sensor) on all devices shows that they functioned properly and returned readings consistent with the Fluke 62 Max sensor.
Image 4: Typical analog thermopile sensor used in the IR thermometers
Based on the consistent thermopile readouts on all devices and the occurrence of the temperature anomalies in only the Chinese thermometers, it’s unlikely that the cyclic pattern of low and high temperature readouts is attributable to individual components and/or circuit design issues.
The four thermometers are made by different vendors, each has different components and board layouts; suggesting that this is some sort of a shared problem. And, if this is the case, then the shared source must be faulty logic or firmware. Either way, this is a critical issue because it renders all of them are unreliable.
Poor Overall Quality and Hostile Intent Two additional data points that relate to the of faulty Chinese medical equipment theory are the large amount of ‘defective’ Covid-19 test kits and sub standard PPE gear sold in the west. In this context, we can also consider the possibility that these defective devices were shipped knowingly. This is suggested from one discussion on the Chinese DingTalk platform (an Alibaba company) where the topic of conversation was deliberately lowering the IR thermometer threshold for units sold in the US. In this 178 member group chat, Zhang Xuandong, the owner of Haofeng Electronic Technology Co—an IR thermometer producer in Dongguan, Guangdong Province in China—openly talked about waging war against the US. Zhang wrote:
” [Let’s] produce some faulty products and sell them to the US. They (the thermometers) should read 36.5 ºC when the actual temperature is 39 ºC. In this way, more and more American people will be infected. Let’s see if they still have people left to go to other countries to harm others!”
After one member responds with three laughing emojis, Zhang continues:
“Isn’t that a great idea? Without using one single soldier, we can make money, as well as make peace around the world.”
Another member then responds:
“No, we don’t want to make any money from the Americans. Let them help and rely on themselves.”
Image 5: The DingTalk conversation about deliberately lowering the IR thermometer threshold for units sold in the US and Zhang Xuandong, the owner of Haofeng Electronic Technology Co.
Conclusion Regardless of the root cause of the thermometer poor performance, the fact remains that all of the tested Chinese units were faulty. So, if you need to make critical decisions about patient care, go with a quality device like the Fluke 62 Max. With the Fluke, you will get US based support, a quality warranty, and piece of mind that your thermometer will work in a consistent and predictable manner. Regardless of make and model, unless you certify the gear independently, stay away from Chinese IR thermometers. The same advice also applies to other Chinese medical testing equipment.
Image 6: Typical claims made by a Chinese IR thermometer manufacturer selling on Amazon regarding precision, FDA approval, and accuracy
Image 7: False claims made by Chinese IR thermometer manufacturers sold on Amazon regarding performance and clinical testing and certification
Video 1: The magic Chinese thermometer that always reads 36.X degrees. The unit doesn’t have actual thermometer components
A Note About Core Body vs. Surface Temperature Anyone who has experimented with baking a thanksgiving turkey knows that a thermometer inserted into the center of a turkey will yield a different temperature than taking a surface measurement with an IR thermometer. Similarly, pointing an IR thermometer at human skin will not yield a reading of 98.6°F but rather something closer to 93°F or 96°F. This reading can depend on many factors such as skin reflectivity, moisture, hair, etc. (a reading of approximately 98.6°F is considered ‘core’ body temperature and must be measured in a body orifice.)
Temperature Baseline Verification Procedures As part of benchmarking the IR thermometers, I’ve used the following two test procedures to establish the baseline for each device:
Ice Water Test The purpose of this test is to determine if the IR thermometer can accurately read the water/ice temperature of approximately 32.0°F. To perform this test, I followed these steps:
Filled a glass with crushed ice and added water to fill the gaps between the ice cubes.
Allowed the ice/water to rest for 120 seconds.
Stirred the mixture to get uniform distribution of water and ice.
Attached the infrared thermometer to a holder located over the top of the ice/water at a distance of 3″ with the lens at a 90° angle and centered it over the ice/water.
Took 10 consecutive readings at 10 second increments
Infrared Comparator Cup The purpose of this test was to compare the accuracy of an infrared thermometer to a calibrated immersion type thermometer at a temperature other than that of ice/water. The reading of the IR thermometer should match that of the reference thermometer within the stated specifications. To perform this test, I followed these steps:
Used a machined aluminum cup with a flat surface with a solid matte black coating. The cup walls shield the surface from air currents in the room and the mass of the base provided for temperature stability.
Inserted the reference thermometer and allowed it to stabilize for five minutes.
Pointed the IR thermometer at the target inside the cup using the same distance and geometry as with the Ice Water test.
Took 10 consecutive readings at a 10 second increments
Copyright 2020 Yaacov Apelbaum, All Rights Reserved.
Since the outbreak of Covid-19 in the west, some mainstream media outlets have gone out of their way to painstakingly promote a number of specific Covid-19 origin theories. Two of the leading themes have been the ‘contaminated bat soup’ and the ‘wet markets’ narratives.
In writing When Tedros Moves His Lips, Beijing Speaks, I deployed several AI agents that have been monitoring SM and MSM Covid-19 related internet traffic. The agents regularly report whenever certain imagery, phrases, or topics appear on the internet. Over the past 2 weeks the system has picked up patterns of reuse of verbiage related to the origin of the virus. For some reason, older narratives get constantly re-inserted into the news feeds and political speeches.
Three such illustrative examples are:
That the consumption of contaminated bat soup was the origin of the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan
That the Chinese were selling and even now continue to sell bats at various ‘Wet markets’
That there is no correlation between the Covid-19 virus and the virus specimens that were isolated from bats in 2014 and worked on in the WIV lab
It is interesting to note that all three of these topics are an integral part of the Chinese government’s propaganda that the Covid-19 virus originated in the wild where it accidently jumped from infected bats to some intermediary host or directly to humans.
Image 1: An infographic from a Sun article titled “MISSING LINK Coronavirus outbreak could be linked to bat soup say scientists” by Gemma Mullin, Digital Health Reporter published 1/24/2020 and updated on 2/5/2020
Image 2: 2/29/2020, The New York Times and CBS promoting the narrative that Covid-19 originated from the Wuhan Wet markets
Based on a large body of imagery and source linkage analysis, these three claims can be shown to be decidedly false, most likely originally produced as a part of an organized disinformation campaign. So, why are MSM outlets like the Sun, DailyMail and the Daily Caller continuing to regurgitate and publish articles supporting this messaging? One possible explanation could be just laziness and poor investigative skills; another could be that it provides a comforting alternative to the strong possibility that the Covid-19 outbreak originated from the Wuhan Institute of Virology laboratory. The latter option would certainly be in-line with undisclosed MSM commercial interests of some sort and the old maxim that one can excuse incompetence but not so dishonesty and negligence. Another convenient bi-product of promoting the force majeure origin narrative is that it would allow China to mount an effective legal defense against the flood of lawsuit heading their way.
The composite in Image 2 illustrates the false basis for the ongoing MSM ‘contaminated bat soup’ and ‘wet market’ origin claims.
Image 3: Examples of ongoing false media claims and disinformation about bats being sold in ‘Wet Markets’ and eaten in China
The composite in Image 4 traces one of the early mimic sources for the ‘contaminated bat soup’ to one of several foreign intelligence influence operations, an account named “Restitutor Orientis”, a French language Twitter alias affiliated with Turkish intelligence.
Image 4: Sampling of the Covid-19 related influence operations by the Twitter account “Restitutor Orientis”
It can happen to anyone. You urgently need a Nazi to support some progressive narrative but alas, there are none to be found? No worries! With our award winning program you will no longer be inconvenienced by the volatile market inventory of authentic Nazis. Instead, you can continue to play the imaginary anti-fascist warrior and collect all the medals that you deserve. Here is our proven process to get you there:
Stand with your flag in front of some Trump supporters and have a colleague take a picture
Wear a baseball cap and sunglass to avoid being identified through face recognition
Upload the image to social media with a caption like: “I just came back from a walk in the park and you won’t believe what I saw—a Nazi Trump Supporter!!”
Sit back and enjoy the synthetic outrage
Image 1: Getting into position
Case in point for the effectiveness of this media stunt program is the Twitter account “Thunder Walks About”. On March 2, 2020, the account posted Image 1 showing a man holding a flag bearing a swastika and the names “Trump” and “Pence”. The accompanying read:
“Today I witnessed a bunch of trump supporters crashing a peaceful rally I was attending with my family. They were profane, disrespectful & crowded behind a nazi flag. Not one trumpster confronted him on his racism. They all stood behind him of course, showing their true selves”.
On April 15, 2020, in a rally named Operation Gridlock, hundreds of Michiganders turned up in the state’s capital for a protest against the stay-at-home orders implemented by the governor. One of the viral but false images posted on-line about this event reused Image 1 claiming that it was taken during the Michigan rally.
Running video and linkage analysis on the “Thunder Walks About” account and Image 1 shows that it is affiliated with the Bernie 2020 PR team. The account is a collective that is used by several individuals who regularly repurpose on-line imagery and generate a large amount of progressive content and distribute it via SM platforms. Facebook and Twitter promote these materials, despite the fact that they are aware that the content has been manipulated and/or fake.
The Nazi Flag Event, The Where, Who, What, When, and Why? The identification of Image 1 as taken on April 15, its location in Michigan, and the person holding the flag being a Nazi are all incorrect. The actual event in the image took place on March 2, 2020 and was a Bernie 2020 musical event. The location was Ann Morrison park in Boise, Idaho. The man holding the flag is a member of Bernie Sanders’ 2020 campaign team. The purpose of this photo stunt was to deliberately pose in front of some Trump supporters in order to create a fake incident. As can be clearly seen in the Image 2, this individual—when not posing as a Nazi—was busy holding a Bernie 2020 sign and was also wearing an official Antifa-Bernie t-shirt.
One final note about false prophets who come to you in sheep’s clothing but inwardly are ravenous wolves: the “Thunder Walks About” account uses a profile image that was stolen from one Aimée Goold, an ICU Nurse who works in the Bassetlaw Teaching Hospital, in East Retford, Nottinghamshire UK. I guess the rationale for this must have been that if you are in for a penny, you are in for a pound. If you are already counterfeiting Nazis, then why not also commit some identity theft and repurpose the image of an exhausted nurse for some extra sympathy.
Image 2: The Nazi protester linkage, related content sampling from “Thunder Walks About” account, and a sampling of Barbara Hermel Bach’s publications, one of the leading producers and distributers of these materials
Image 3: Sampling of some of the content produced by the “Thunder Walks About” propaganda mill. Close to 40% of the materials have racist/Nazi references
*** Update 04/20/2020 *** Several media outlets continue to provide life support for the misidentification of the man holding the Nazi flag and the reason for its use at the March 2 Bernie Sanders rally in Boise, Idaho. In one article titled Don’t Get Fooled by Fake Photos of Coronavirus Lockdown Protests, Elizabeth Nolan Brown wrote:
“The man holding the swastika flag also showed up at a rally in Arizona, where he was kicked out, shouted anti-Semitic slurs at people, and was subsequently reported on by Buzzfeed. He was identified as Robert Sterkeson, who describes himself as a “stunt activist” and the Anti-Defamation League describes as a white supremacist.
It does not seem that the man’s flag was meant to be a critical commentary on the Trump administration, as some have suggested, nor a false-flag operation to make Trump supporters look bad.”
Both of these claims are incorrect. The individual depicted in the photo is not Robert Sterkeson and the reason for him posing with the flag was to purposely create a false association between the Trump supporters and Nazis.
*** Update 04/22/2020 *** Another illustration of an on-demand generation of progressive news content and the near real-time distribution of these materials. The person in the image wearing the blue medial scrubs is not a medical professional. He is a member of a coordinated stunt photography team. The team of three arrived to the photo-shoot together and departed together afterwards.
Image 4: Example of staged content generated the “Thunder Walks About”.
Half a lie, philosophically Must, ipso facto, half not be But half the lie still got to be A vis-a-vis the truth you see?
There is a large number of online image composites that incorrectly identify various individuals as the Ukraine call leaker Eric Ciaramella. The following are a few of the more notable examples.
In Image 1, the individual identified as Eric Ciaramella is David Edelman, he was President Obama’s Special Assistant for Economic & Technology Policy in 2014.
Image 1: False identification of David Edelman as Eric Ciaramella
In Image 2, the individual identified as Eric Ciaramella is Hugo Verges, he is French President Emanuel Macron’s advisor for Latin America. This image was taken prior to the state diner on April 24, 2018.
Image 2: False identification of Hugo Verges as Eric Ciaramella
In Image 3, the person identified as Eric Ciaramella is Alexander Soros. These images were taken over a period of several years. Alexander is the son of George Soros.
Image 3: False identification of Alexander Soros as Eric Ciaramella
In Image 4, the person identified as Eric Ciaramella is Eric Hochberger. He is Adam Schiff’s daughter’s Alexa boyfriend.
Image 4: False identification of Eric Hochberger as Eric Ciaramella
In Image 5, the person identified as Eric Ciaramella is Rostyslav Pavlenko. He is the Head of Situation Analysis Service of the Secretariat of President of Ukraine. Eric Ciaramella and Jennifer Perino did attend this meeting, but opted out of the group photo. The source of this Image is USUF.
Image 5: False identification of Rostyslav Pavlenko as Eric Ciaramella
The following is a complete catalog of the participants in the Washington, DC, November 9, 2015 meeting titled “Representatives of the All-Ukrainian Council of Churches and Religious Organizations meeting with Obama Administration officials”.
Image 6: Catalog of meeting participants (including some absent from the photo)
If you are looking for a confirmed Eric Ciaramella’s photo, you can find it in the Mechanics of Deception (one of the links), as well as in Image 7 below. All images have been deepfake verified.
Image 7: L-R Yaroslav Brisiuck, Urii Stets, Erci Ciaramella, and Elizabeth Zentos
Note regarding false image source and distribution: It may be of some relevance or just a coincidence that at least one of the composite images that misidentifies Alexander Soros as Eric Ciaramella originated from the email address email@example.com. This address is associated with Karrisa Olsen, the wife of a Fackcheck.org reporter Angelo Fichera.
I’ve been asked by a number of people if the images seen in the video of the October 11 Minnesota riots that took place during President Trump’s rally show Ilhan Omar, Tim Mynett, and Isra Hirsi. Running the video footage through face recognition (FR) came back inconclusive with the following match rates:
Face recognition for Ilhan Omar = 52% Face recognition for Tim Mynett = 71% Face recognition for Isra Hirsi (Ilhan Omar’s daughter) = 56%
The reason for these low scores is that the Persons of Interest (POI) that resemble the three individuals have key facial features such as the nose, mouth, lips, chin, either obscured or distorted. That said, several other video analytics did find multiple partial matches on general personal characteristics such as ethnicity, body size, face build, hand size, and scarf wrapping style. Tim Mynett’s glasses for example, matched at 94%.
Face Cover and Proximity Evaluating the appearance of the various POIs in the footage shows that they didn’t cover their faces at all times. In several instances, POI-1, who resembles Ilhan Omar took the scarf of her face. POI-4, an accomplice of POI-1 (of the same ethnicity), didn’t cover her face at all and was wearing her head scarf in a casual non-traditional Somali wrap. POI-2, who partially matched Tim Myentt also periodically removed his face cover. This suggests that at least some of the participants didn’t have privacy concerns or believed that alternately appearing without a face cover wouldn’t be detrimental. From the spatial awareness point of view, POI-1-4 repeatedly moved in and out of the Field of View (FOV) and operated at a very close proximity to the photographer. In at least 2 occasions reaching as close as 18-36 inches from the camera.
Image 1: POI-1 and her accomplice POI-4 frolicking with uncoverd faces in front of the camera
Motion Dynamics Following the FR, I also performed motion analysis of the four POIs identified. Motion pattern analysis examines the movements of individual objects in a field of view and classifies them according to their trajectory, velocity, and movement pattern. In a typical public gatherings such as demonstrations, airport/subway passenger traffic, sport events, street traffic, etc. individuals and crowds tend to exhibit certain patterns of motion like loitering, flowing at the speed of traffic, movement coordination, queuing, pacing, etc. The results of this analysis flagged the following anomalies:
POI-1 who resembles Ilhan Omar didn’t move organically within the FOV as did the other demonstrators. She loitered around the camera with another female accomplice (POI-4 of the same ethnicity) and seemed to be more interested in being observed by the camera and less in joining the demonstration at the police bicycle barricades a few feet away from them, where the action was taking place.
At one point in the footage, POI-1 that resembles Ilhan Omar turned to walk away towards the camera, she noticed the camera, and quickly turned around and used both hands to adjust the scarf on her face. She then did a 180 degree pirouette and walked right back in the same direction towards the camera. Typically, this would not be the pattern of motion for a person who is trying to avoid being seen. Rather, one would expect her to turn her back to the camera and walk to either side or straight ahead into the crowd to avoid being identified (see Video 1).
POI-1 who resembles Ilhan Omar exhibited coordinated motion with POI-2 (they frequently shared the FOV). Both moved fluidly, slowly, and deliberately as if to provide image capture opportunities.
POI-2 who matched Tim Mynett also interacted with the camera on multiple occasions in the same way as POI-1 did. On at least one occasion, he walked right across the FOV with a clear profile shot and at one point deliberately pulled down his scarf exposing his face and faced the camera. He was aware of his action because he made direct eye contact with the center off the lens (Video 1).
Video 1: POI-1 and POI-2 coyly promenading in front of the camera
Image 2: The Minnesota riot video POI match analysis details
Linkage and Geospatial Analysis Running a linkage analysis on several entities involved in this video shows a direct relationships between the actors and Ilhan Omar. For example, Andy Mannix, who recorded the video of the riot is a MinPost reporter that knows Ilhan Omar and Tim Mynett.
Mannix, also knows Cory Zurowski from his days in the Minnesota City Pages newspaper. In 2016, Zurowski published a fictitious biographical piece about Ilhan Omar (he didn’t verify any of Ilhan’s bio claims) and in that article had a little Freudian slip and fall and identified Ilhan Omar’s real family name as Elmi, but then promptly changed it back to Omar. Andy Mannix also happens to be married to Briana Bierschbach, a former AP reporter who currently works for Minnesota Public Radio as a political correspondent. Bierschbach interviewed Ilhan Omar on multiple occasions and wrote several supportive articles about her. The Bierschbach Omar stories are political puff pieces that are light on investigative facts and heavy on personal aggrandization and read like a press release written by Tim Mynett (who is Ilhan Omar’s PR manager/latest romantic interest). The common theme in all of these writings is to highlight Omar’s heroic qualities and whitewash the dubious details about her and her family’s history.
From the geospatial point of view, having Mannix, Mynett, Hirsi, and a crypto Omar within a radius of 10 feet of each other, without either one of them being aware of the others is suspicious to say the least. Of course, it doesn’t help the cause when Mynet instructs a colleague to use his credit card in DC in order to build an out of town alibi.
In many ways, this act reminds me of the plot line in the P. G. Wodehouse’s novel “Jeeves Takes Charge”. In it, Jeeves’s makes the following observation to Bertie Wooster:
“Any undertaking that requires the presence of four people all in one place, all at the same time, while two of them are unaware of the fact, is fraught with the possibility of mishap sir.”
Image 3: Andy Mannix, Briana Bierschbach, Cory Zurowski, and their Ilahn Omar linkage
Prophetic Visions of Fake News Mannix’s social media activity prior to the rally may also be relevant to this discussion. On October 10 at 11:40 AM, a day before the riots started, using what seems to be a prophetic vision, he twitted the following prediction for the upcoming event:
“There will also inevitably be a lot of fake [news] or unsubstantiated claims…”
Suspiciously, the only viral fake news story that came out of this event is associated with the footage that he recorded.
Image 4: Andy Mannix’s prophetic tweet about future fake news relating to the Minnesota Trump rally
It certainly seems that the whereabouts of Ilhan Omar, her daughter Isra Hirsi, and Tim Mynett during the riots could fit into the debate about ‘unsubstantiated news claims’. What is not clear though, is what role did Mannix and his progressive reporter network play in engineering this event.
Conclusion My take on this is that based on the positive match for Tim Maynett and Isra Hirsi and the multiple partial matches for Ilhan Omar there is a strong possibility that this was a publicity stunt with a look-alike done for the purpose of crowd sourcing a false identification. One possible reason for doing this might be to use this incident to discredit the ‘conspiracy theorists’ by showing that Omar was at a different location at the time this video was shoot. This would then allow her PR team to leverage the false match and use it to repudiate other successful searches that positively confirmed her second husband as her brother.
This also suggests that someone on the Omar team seems to be concerned about the previous usage of video analytics to identify her dubious family linkage and is trying to develop some counter narrative to address it.
Despite numerous interviews, media write-ups, and multiple biographical sources, Ilhan Abdullahi Omar AKA “Ilhan Nur Said Elmi” remains an enigma. As strange as it sounds, there is almost no verifiable information about her nor her family in the public domain. This is bordering on the fantastic considering the fact that she is a ±34 year old (she has no birth certificate) sitting congresswoman. In an era where comprehensive digital background searches can be executed with a single mouse click, Omar’s fluid and ever shifting identity and invisible past are a puzzle.
The majority of the biographical information that she disclosed has multiple non-reconcilable versions. This includes significant inconsistencies about basic facts such as:
Her family’s actual size
Their real names
The family wealth and real-estate ownership in the US and Somalia
Any evidence that the family spent years in the Dadaab refugee camp instead of the resort city of Mombasa
The real reason for their escape from Somalia
The problem with Omar’s exceptionally poor recollection of facts and propensity for embellishments isn’t limited to the period between 1990-2011. Just a few weeks ago, on May 28, Omar delivered the following speech in the Richfield high school about her first hand experience with a “sweet old African lady”:
“sweet, old . . . African American lady” who had been arrested for stealing a $2 loaf of bread to feed her “starving 5-year-old granddaughter.”
After spending the weekend in jail, the woman was led into the courtroom and fined $80—a penalty she couldn’t pay. I couldn’t control my emotions, because I couldn’t understand how a roomful of educated adults could do something so unjust.”
If you haven’t noticed, this plot-line suspiciously resembles Jean Valjean’s crime in Victor Hugo’s Les Miserables.
As with most of her claims and recollections, this story too is unverifiable. She doesn’t remember where or when it took place, what court handled the case, or who the “sweet old. . . African American lady” was.
Image 1: Ilhan Omar delivering the speech about the “sweet, old . . . African American lady” who had been arrested for stealing a $2 loaf of bread to feed her “starving 5-year-old granddaughter
The fluidity of the Oma’rs background suggests that most of the details that we know about her have been engineered. It is also clear that over the past 27 years, core components of the Omar family dossier have gone through multiple revisions at the hands of someone who has a decent grasp of covert intelligence operations.
For example, between Ilhan, her father, current husband, and one of her sisters, they have 32 name variations that are being used interchangeably in various official registries.
Ilhan Omar Ilhan Ilhan Omar Ilham Umar Omar Ihan Omar Ijhan Ilham Omar Ilham A Omar Ilhan Abdullahi Omar Father Abdullahi O Mohamed Nur Mohamed Nur Omar Mohamed Nur Said Elmi Mohamed
Current Husband Ahmed A Hirsi Ahmed Aden Ahmed Hirsi Ahmed Abdisalan Hirsi Ahmed A Aden Ahmed Hrisri Ahmed Hersi Ahmed Haji Ahmed Hassan
Sister (US Based) Sahra Abdullahi Omar Noor Sahra Omar Sahra Sahra Noor Sahra Omar Sahra A Omar Sahra Abdullahi Omar Sara Omar Sarah Omar Kadra Omar Zahra
Ilhan’s perpetual reenactment of the comedy of errors of family name/identity mismatches is not an English as a second language issue. The same pattern appears when she communicates in her native Somali tongue. During her 2016 visit to Somalia and a meeting with president Mohamed Hassan Sheikh, she told the local media, in Somali, that the man by her side was her husband Ahmed Elmi. Running face recognition on the images taken by a Somali state media service photographer shows that the person accompanying her was in fact Ahmed Hirsi.
Image 2: Photographing Ilhan Omar and her husband Ahmed Hirsi visit with the Somali president. Images taken by a Somali state media service photographer.
As can be seen in Image 3, shortly after her marriage issue surfaced the photos in the article were deleted from the server. I contacted “Hassan Istiila”, the author of the article and asked him why he removed the images, he denied doing so himself (see email exchange in the references). The post edit history and server logs show that an admin user by the name of Farsamada AKA Liibaan Mohamoud Yusuf Nabiil was the one who removed the images from the WP CMS used by Radio Dalsan. It also turns out that Farsamada is a dedicated Ilhan Omar supporter/promoter in Somalia (see Image 5).
Image 3: The Mogadishu Radio Dalsan article about Ilhan Omar’s 2016 visit to Somalia and her meeting with the Somali president Mohamed Hassan Sheikh. The article identifies her husband as Ahmed Elmi but in fact it is Ahmed Hirsi.
Image 4: The Mogadishu Radio Dalsan 2016 article with some of the recovered images showing that the person accompanying Ilhan Omar was in fact Ahmed Hirsi traveling under the name Ahmed Elmi (Ilhan Omar only divorced Ahmed Elmi in 2017).
Image 5: Farsamada AKA Liibaan Mohamoud Yusuf Nabiil, the Somali news editor who purged Ilhan Omar’s images from the Mugadisu Radio Dalsan article that identified Ahmed Hirsi as Ahmed Elmi.
Omar’s 2011-2016 trips to Somalia also raise questions about potential FARA violations, her funding sources, and the actual purpose of her visit with the Somali president and local business leaders. From her itinerary it is clear that these were expensive state functions that took place years before Ilhan was elected to Congress. So who exactly paid for these visits? And why did the Somali president “requested her presence” at his villa? Unless, of course, Omar was there on a crypto-Elmi family financial/political expedition or as a private US/Somali power broker for promoting the interests of a Jihadi terrorist sponsors like Ahmed Nur Ali Jim’ale.
Another good illustration for this steady stream of name/identity shell games and biographical revisionism is her famous ‘militia assassination’ story. This tale which forms the foundation of Ilhan’s Somalia fairytale escape narrative (and likely the basis for the US asylum application) details a traumatic night in Mogadishu when her family’s secure compound was attacked by an unknown rebel militia who tried to “assassinate” her entire family.
The following are two versions of this story as told by Omar in 2016. The first version is from her interview with Cory Zurowski from CityPages News. The second version—which she told a month later—is from an Omar propaganda featurette that was produced by Daniel Cummings.
1. Ilhan Omar’s Improbable Journey from Refugee Camp to Minnesota Legislature CityPages News – Published 26 October, 2016 “Nighttime fell as about 20 people milled about the compound in Mogadishu, the Somali capital. Bad noises outside announced unwelcome visitors. Men with big guns demanded to be let in. The group tried to bust down the front door, but it was unbreakable. Omar and her family fell to the floor moments before the militiamen let go a staccato of gunfire. Once they were satisfied with the evening’s damage, the attackers left.
Everyone survived. Omar hasn’t forgotten the sight of bullet pockmarks in the building’s cinderblock walls.
Shellshock turned to grief for Omar’s grandpa. “That was a hard realization for my grandfather, that our family was no longer welcome,” she says. “Even after the attack, he struggled with this new reality.”
Days later, they put their familiar world in the rearview mirror. They split into groups, 20 people in total fleeing. Omar’s headed for the coast where Abukar [grandfather] had connections. Alongside her father, she hopped a plane for Kenya.”
[Go to 55:14 in the recording to hear the description below]
“Think my earliest memory of when the war actually felt real was waking up you know midnight… to militiaman surrounding our house. My aunt and older sister having a conversation through the window, sort of a negotiation with them because these were classmates of theirs, umm… and… and…and… negotiating them to sort of back down… and umm…and trying to break into our house and assassinate us.
We ended up surviving that night then my grandfather said that we like had to leave. We all left thinking that we’ll come back…that umm… you know in a few months the war would end, so we sort of fled I think like at 4 AM.
And walking through this… this…streets and actually, umm… walking over dead bodies and seeing debris and buildings that have fallen apart umm…sort of land marks of like hotels that you know, umm… that had movie theaters and all of this that we used to go by and… and… see that they no longer were standing tall…”
Both of these versions have major structural flaws. This includes discrepancies in the timeline, the sequence of events, the number of individuals involved, and the plot line. As can be seen from the table below, there are embellishment and missing elements in each version. For example, the claim that the militia opened fire at the house vs. that they retreated peacefully after the aunt and sister negotiated with them or that the militiaman were classmates of her aunt and or sister.
20 men in the militia
Compound in Mogadishu
Militia outside the compound
Militia surrounded compound
Aunt & older sister talking to militia
Militia were classmates of aunt & sister
Man with big guns
Trying to bust down the door
Militia tried to assassinate them
House door was unbreakable
Omar and family fell to the ground
Militia opens fire at the house
Memory of bullet pockmarks on wall
Family not welcome in Somalia
20 family members fleeing
Catching a flight to Kenya
Dead bodies & destroyed buildings
Grandfather said we had to leave
Table 1: A few variations in two versions of Ilhan Omar’s story about the Somali rebel militia storming the Omar compound in Mogadishu
Both versions of the story make little sense, especially the preposterous assertions Omar makes about the ‘magic door’ that could not be breached and how her family, consisting of 20 individuals (who weren’t connected to the brutal dictator Said Berra) managed on short notice to get hard currency, valid passports, visas, airline tickets, transportation to the airport, and a safe passage through multiple checkpoints controlled by Mohamed Farah Aideed’s militia to catch an international flight to Kenya.
Following this and many other Omar biographical dichotomies, I decided to examine her public statements regarding her family history. For any other US elected official, these types of gaping holes in a personal and family history would normally trigger a lynch mob of angry MSM investigative reporters. But as it has been already demonstrated, Congresswoman Omar seems to have managed to somehow acquire the ring of Gyges and will not answer questions on these subjects because she deems them too offensive and an invasion of her privacy.
Image 6: Somali refugees and their political affiliation with the regime of the Somali dictator Mohammed Siad Barre
So instead of hoping that someone will finally wake up and bring her in for questioning, I figured why not do the next best thing–take some of her video appearances and run them through a software based polygraph analysis.
The Evaluation Process I wanted to conduct the evaluation in an impartial manner and eliminate the Christine Blasey Ford effect and the observer bias. To achieve this, I’ve only used movies of Omar that had her speaking clearly and audibly and featured a close-up view of her face at a sufficient resolution. This was important for facial feature extraction. I also automated the image optimization and evaluation process.
In assembling the virtual polygraph system, I used several Artificial Intelligence tools to perform the speech and facial expression evaluation. For the facial and speech analytics I used:
For the speech analysis I used several algorithms to identify conversational dynamics and the detection of deceit through functions and patterns such as:
Usage of filler words like “Umm”, “and”, “Like”
Cut out contractions such as using “did not” rather than “didn’t”
Increase/decrease in speech speed, pitch, and tone
Prolonging word vocalization to buy time
Repeating or rephrasing questions
Voice pitch changes
I calibrated the facial expression engine and established a baseline using several hours of Omar’s speeches on a variety of ‘neutral’ subjects. I then established her ‘truth’ baseline using over 1200 factual statements (i.e. statement known to be true). I also supplemented her baseline facial expressions with catalogue of over 230 combinations of her customized Microexpression.
Following the creation of a unique database of her facial expressions, I proceeded with the ML training using her unique data sets. The whole training process took about 32 hours.
After the training was completed, I fed several movies into the engine and evaluated the accuracy of the system performance in terms of false detection and missed detection using a manual ground truth evaluation. During that evaluation, I examined several hundred individual video frames, correlating them to what Omar was saying and the AI detections of face expression.
The results of the ground truth successfully confirmed the accuracy of the training data and the precision of the speech and facial expression algorithms.
Image 7: Sample of the facial analysis results for one video frame out of about 120K frames analyzed.
Image 8: Sample of a few of the over 4000 frames analyzed from the ‘Militia Assassination’ sequence
Image 10: Sample images showing rapid eye flickering and fidgeting (soothing behavior) correlated to the ‘Militia Assassination’ sequence
Image 11: Sample of an image that has gone through the optimization and enhancement process prior to using it in facial analysis
Analysis Results The textual analysis shows that when Omar is talking about the gray parts of her biography her first person singular pronouns decrease, her negative emotion words increase, and her complex word choice decrease. This is most likely attributed to an increased cognitive overload that is associated with creative thinking. She also uses many more action verbs then average in these segments which suggests that she want’s to keep the story moving and discourage a challenge on the part of the listener.
The speech and facial sentiment analysis strongly suggests that Omar was deceitful when discussing her family Mogadishu history. She exhibited all of the typical facial and body mechanics indicators for dishonesty including:
Omar’s analytic ‘lie’ score consistently exceeds her ‘truth’ baseline by 30%-80%. Her patterns also exhibit many indications of a compulsive fibber. She is a a great storyteller; her tales tend to be very detailed and colorful and she seems very animated. She is a natural performer, she is eloquent, and she knows how to successfully engage her audience. When providing historical information about her family, she never does so matter-of-factly (the way most people retell their family histories). Rather, Omar’s narrative is always custom packaged, epic, and geared at acquiring the listener’s admiration and sympathy.
The following are a few examples that suggest that she could be either a pathological liar or is working with well written PR scripts:
She often talks about experiences and accomplishments in which she and her family play heroic parts
She is often a victim (of physical violence) in her stories and is habitually looking for sympathy and protection
She is always brave, virtuous, better then her adversaries, and beyond reproach
Her stories tend to be very detailed but lack any verifiable data
She responds elaborately and quickly to questions but her responses are always vague and almost never answer the question
She has different versions of the same story and uses all of these versions at times
Confirmed facts about her and family don’t support her version of the events
Image 12: Omar’s sentiment chart showing various emotional indicators when discussing the ‘Militia Assassination’ event
Omar habitually exhibits this pattern of evasiveness and embellishment in all of her narratives. For example, we know from multiple interviews that the count of her siblings changes and varies at any one time from 3-7. This begs the question of what her family’s real story is and why are they so reluctant to disclose it.
Omar is a naturalized US citizen with a very ambiguous/suspicious background that doesn’t seem to match her official biography. As a public figure and congresswoman, she has or will have access to sensitive and classified state secrets, as such, it may not be a bad idea for DHS and INS to run her record in order to eliminate any potential security breaches downstream. Anyone working for any three letter agency must go through a background screening and a detailed character evaluation. Some are even mandated to take periodic polygraph tests. There is no reason why a top lawmaker like Ilhan should be exempt. If her biographical details match her official story, then she should get the royal stamp of approval and be done with all the speculation. If it does not, then there should be full public disclosure of the details and a congressional hearing regarding the discrepancies.
In 1995, when Ilhan was about 12, she finally got her wish and arrived to New York. While being driven to her new suburban home in Arlington Virginia she recalled the following memory:
“Staring out a car window, felt ripped off. This wasn’t the same country as the one showed to her on the INS orientation videos. Instead, it was a headache of car horns and homelessness, an eyesore of trash and graffiti.”
Image 13: Parts of the Hirsi Omar enterprise in Minnesota
Image 14: Ilhan Omar and Tim Mynett her strategist at a CAIR event hosted by Hassan Shibly, Ilhan holding hands with Mynett, dinning out with him, and spending the night together while she is still married to Ahmed Hersi.
Image 15: Ilhan Omar’s 2018-19 financial records showing over $250K in payments to Tim Mynett’s E Street Group LLC for his fundraising and consulting services.
Image 16: March 23rd-24th 2019, Ilhan Omar and Tim Mynett holding hands, spending the night together, and dinning at the Café Penguini Italian restaurant in Playa Del Ray.
Image 17: One of the image sources used to establish Ilhan Omar baseline of facial expressions associated with deceptive behavior. In this interview she denies her affair with Tim Nynett and separation from her husband Ahmed Hirsi (both have been confirmed as true)
Image 18: Ilhan Omar and her friend Hassan Shibly, the CAIR-Florida Chief Executive Director. Shibly is the one who wrote Ilhan’s speech at the CAIR fund raiser in LA where she stated that “Some people did something”. Shilby is on the US Terror Watchlist, CAIR and it’s members are also designated a terrorist organization by the UAE government.
From the size of the Omar financial enterprise, it seems that she was taking careful notes while watching the introduction INS movie about the freedom of religion and economic opportunities in America. Based on her sexual promiscuity It also looks like she has been binging on Dallas and Beverly Hills, 90210 style shows. It’s a shame, that she never got around to watch any episodes of The Waltons.
References and Sourcing Email exchange with Hassan Istiila From: Hassan Istiila <firstname.lastname@example.org> Sent: Sunday, August 04, 2019 5:54 AM To: <Apelbaum> Subject: Re: Question about one of your articles
Thank you for reaching out, i left the Radio Dalsan a year ago so i don’t know why the images was being removed and i don’t have the images now.
Former Editor, Former freelancer with News Agencies. Blogger, social media trainer, media consultant, researcher and Human Rights Activist.
On Fri, Aug 2, 2019 at 7:22 AM Y A <Apelbaum> wrote:
Hi Mr. Istiila,
I am writing an article on Ilhan Omar’s visits to Somalia in 2016 referencing your article below and was hoping that you can help me.
I’ve noticed that five images that came with the article were just recently removed. Would you be able to share these images? Also, any reason why you identified her husband in the article as Ahmed Elmi instead of Ahmed Hirsi?
Woe to a deceitful liar – وَيْلٌ لِّكُلِّ أَفَّاكٍ أَثِيمٍ A fake refugee hatched out a plan And perched on it like a crafty hen: This self-righteous adulteress whore, Has made profession of this chore.
A congresswoman on a hate crusade Should carefully watch her vile tirade: Appreciate the kindness done to you, forget not you owe your life to a Jew.
No matter how crafty a liar is Allah is mightier than she is: He raises up the righteous to a bliss, And brings deceivers to their knees.
Copyright 2019 Yaacov Apelbaum, All Rights Reserved.
On July 24th at 8:32 AM EST, all eyes and ears were turned to the former special counsel, the honorable Robert Mueller. Going into the hearings, the Republicans hoped to expose multiple structural cracks in the report. The Democrats, on the other hand, tried to get just one conclusive evidence of collusion and election tampering to justify impeachment.
Just like other interested citizens, I have been following the Russian collusion and DNC email hacking saga since 2016, so naturally, I expected that special counsel Mueller would address some of the key findings in the report, but alas, my hopes for insight and clarity were dashed. What promised to be simple Q&A session turned out to be a painful, 454 minute game of charades where you never got to figure out most of the answers.
At 8:54 AM, 48 minutes and 18 seconds into his sworn testimony, Robert Mueller–the consummate DC political bureaucrat–activated his industrial strength fog machine and deployed a force field deflector shield. This set in motion a reoccurring pattern of ducking, dodging, and sidestepping direct and specific questions about his pet project report.
Despite the lack of clarity in his answers and his alarming unfamiliarity with his own work (e.g. not knowing who Fusion GPS was), I found the session to be insightful and a veritable treasure trove in terms of body language, image artifacts, and audio content worthy of analysis. Special counsel Mueller spoke for about 7 hours and provided a rare opportunity to capture his conversational patterns, facial characteristics, and behavioral fingerprint when under duress while in a single continual homogeneous session–and all of this in a well lit environment in front of high resolution cameras. For image analytics, It don’t get no better than this!
A Note About Lie Detection Nonverbal queues or AKA body language is a form of communication. It is similar to verbal communications expect that it’s done through facial expressions, gestures, touching, physical movements, posture, bling, tone, timbre, and various speech and voice characteristics. Nonverbal behavior comprises a large percent of all interpersonal communication and can provided insight into a person’s thoughts and feelings.
The theory behind the ability to detect lies from body language is that most people who are lying find it difficult to maintain physical and mental comfort under ongoing stressful questioning. The result is observable distress in their speech and appearance. This is because disguising the truth requires significant amount of left brain creative processing, that in turn, increases cognitive load as the person struggles to ‘make up’ answers to what would otherwise be fast memory recollection responses.
That said, there is no such thing as an accurate lie detector. Polygraphs or professional body language readers can sometimes spot person’s discomfort and stress as they relate to certain topics and then focus on these areas for further analysis. If the annals of polygraph testing teach us anything, it is that professional liars like Aldrich Ames, Robert Hanssen, and Kim Philby (who ironically wrote the chapter about catching double agents), developed immunity to polygraphs.
It is also relevant to note that criminal courts usually don’t admit polygraph tests or body language reading as evidence because they are considered unreliable by academic psychologists (Christine Blasey Ford may disagree with this finding) and by scientists. In addition, the person who administers and assesses the test has a great deal of control over how it is conducted and its outcome. This, by itself, can completely skew or invalidate the results.
An Experienced Counter Intelligence Officer When evaluating Mueller’s testimony, it is important to remember that he is a professional with years of experience in briefings and debriefings (over 80 congressional testimonies), legal depositions, interrogations, and counter intelligence work. This was evident in his testimony. With a few exceptions, he avoided taking the bait from hostile questioners’ and utilized common counter-interrogation techniques such as draining the clock by asking for questions to be repeated (18 times), requesting the speaker to cite and point to the specific references in his copy of the documents (9 times), endlessly paging though his folders without finding or reading any of the referenced content (7 times), and answering at length about unrelated issues.
Special counsel Mueller’s most frequent deflection tactic was to use I-phrases such as “I can’t get into…” or “I’m not going to…”. The former special special counsel declined to answer all relevant questions about topics such as the Steele Dossier, Fusion GPS, the usage of paid informants, and the genealogy of the FISA applications. As can be seen in Table 1, out of about 230 total questions, Mueller dodged about 198 and only provided vague non-committal responses to 10 others. This amounted to failing to answer about 87% of all questions.
This was quite a performance for the shining knight of justice, especially if you consider the DOJ mission statement of:
“To enforce the law and defend the interests of the United States according to the law; to ensure public safety against threats foreign and domestic; to provide federal leadership in preventing and controlling crime; to seek just punishment for those guilty of unlawful behavior; and to ensure fair and impartial administration of justice for all Americans.”
The key operative word here is “ensure”, not try, attempt, or do your best, but to verify and confirm.
Chart 1: The distribution of Mueller’s instances of dodging or refusing to answer questions during his testimony
Mueller’s Response Algorithm Special counsel Mueller was selective in what questions he deflected. To the casual observer, it may have seemed that he was laconic across the board, but that wasn’t’ the case. In multiple non–sequential instances, he provided elaborate and definitive responses to questions but these were almost exclusively from Democratic Congress and Intelligence Oversight Committee members. With a few exceptions, most of his verbose responses could be categorized as being damaging to President Trump.
Image 1: Special counsel Mueller’s Tag Cloud of the types of words and phrases that he used to avoid answering the questions. The operative sentence that proceeded most of these words was ”I’m not going to…”
As can be seen in Table 1, the taxonomy of his answers contains a large variation of the first person “I”, “I’m”, and “my”. This suggests that Mueller felt a strong affinity to the document. He never used the form “we”, “our”, or “the team” which would have been more appropriate considering his repeated assertions that the report was a large team effort and that no single individual has mastered its content.
Response to Question
I stick with the language that is in front of you
I will leave the answer to our report
I’m not going to discuss other matters
I’ll refer to the report
I can’t say I understand the statistics
I direct you to the report for how its characterized
I rely on the language in the report
This is one of those area which I decline to discuss and will direct you to the report
Again, I send you to the report
I have to pass on that
I rely on the report
This is outside my purview
That is outside my purview
Outside my purview
I refer you to the report
This is still outside my purview
I will refer you to the report on that episode
I’m going to ask you rely on what we wrote about that incident
I’m again would refer you to the report and the way its characterized in the report
I’m not going to get into that
I can’t get into that. That’s internal deliberation of the justice department
I direct you again to the report
Whatever was said will be in the report
I can’t answer that questions
That’s not in my purview
I can’t get into that
I can’t get into that
I am not going to get into it
I would refer you to the coverage of this in the report
I would refer you to the report
I send you back to the report
I refer you to the write-up of this in the report
I can’t beyond what’s in the report
I can’t get into internal deliberations
I can’t get into the evidentiary findings
Can’t get into that
I will leave it as it appears in the report
I’m just going to have to refer you to the report if I could
I don’t want to speculate
I rely on the wording of the report
With regards to Steele, that beyond my purview
It’s not within my purview
As I said before and said again, it’s not within my purview
I refer you to the report on that
That’s an area in which I cannot get into
I’m not going to get into what we may or may not have included in our investigation
I’m not going to get into subsidiary details. I refer you again to the page 91-92
I can’t speak to that
I am under orders that don’t allow me to give you an answer to that particular question
I can’t get into the discussion on that
I’m not going to be involved in the discussion on that…
I’m not going to go further in terms of discussion…
I can’t get into our investigative moves
I’m not going to get into that any further than I already have
I can’t speak to that
I would say I rely on what’s in the report
That letter speaks for itself
I’m not going to go beyond that
I refer you to the court proceedings on that issue
I’m not going to get into that
I can’t speak to that
I’m not going to talk to that
I’m not going to speak that
I’m not going to get into what was in Mr. Comey’s mind
I’m not going to delve more into the details of what happened
I’ll leave that to the attorney General
I’m not going to get into ta discussion on that
Again, I refer you to the report
I refer you to the lengthy dissertation on exactly whose issues that appears in the report
I can’t speak to that
That was outside out purview
I’m not going to speak to that
And I am not going to answer that question, sir
I’m not going to speak anymore to that
I’m not going to answer that
I have nothing to add
I’m not going to add to what I have stated before
I feel uncomfortable discussing anything to do with the Stone indictment
I’m not going to speculate
I’m not going top discuss that
Not going to talk about that
I’m not going to answer that
I’m not going to talk about that issue
I’m not going to get into that. It’s a little of track
I have to say the letter itself speaks for itself
I go back to the latter. The letter speaks for itself
I can’t answer that question in a vacuum
We have not specified the persons mentioned
I’m not going to speculate
I’m going to pass on that
I’m not going to comment
I’m not going to go into details of the report
Those areas, I’m going to stay away from
I’m not going to get into those matters to which you refer
I’m not going to speak to the series of happenings as you explained them
I’d have to refer you to the reports on that one
I’m not going to speculate
I can speak to the half of the half of your question that’s on the screen being accurate
I’m not going to speak to that
Again, I’m not going to discuss the issues related to Mr. Steele
Again, I pass on answering that question
That’s about all I’ll say on this aspect of it
I’m going to pass on that
I take your question
I’m not going to speculate along those lines
I’m not going to opine on that. I don’t have the expertise in that arena to opine
I cannot agree with that. Not that it’s not true, but hat I can’t agree with it…
That portion or that matter does not fall within our jurisdiction
I direct you to the report for how its characterized
I’m not going to discuss any other alternatives
I can’t speak to that. That would be in levels of classification
I’m going to stay away from one particular or two particular situations
I’m not going to talk about specifics
I’m not going to speak to that
I’m not going to get into that. It goes into internal deliberations
Again, I’m going to pass on that
As I said before, this is an area that I cannot speak to
Again, I’m not going to speak to that issue
Questions such as that should go to the FBI
And I’m not going to discuss that
I’m not going to get into that
And again, I’m not going to respond to that
Again, I can’t respond
Again, I can’t speak to it
Again, I can’t answer that
Again, I’m not going to go there
I think you understand I cannot get into either classified or law enforcement information
I can’t respond to that question, it’s outside my jurisdiction
Again, I can’t speak to that
I can’t go into it
I’m no longer in the Federal government, so I’ll pass
I don’t want to wade into those waters
I defer to the report on that
I can’t get into a discussion on it
I can’t answer that
I can’t get into that
Again, it’s the same territory that I’m loath to get into
I’m not going to talk to that
I’m not going to talk to that
That I can’t get into
And I can’t get into that area
I can’t answer that question
I’m not going to get into that
I cannot get into that
I will not get into that
I leave that to you
Table 1: Sampling of reasons from about 200 instances for Mueller’s refusal to answer questions
The Evaluation Process Special counsel Mueller’s testimony consisted of over 750,000 video frames. Evan a trained interrogator could only process a small percentage of this data. Add to this the observer’s distraction, blinking, and fatigue and it becomes virtually impossible for a human to be able to accurately capture the fine nuances of all of these these frames or sequences for content. At best, a person would be able to provide a summarized ‘gut feeling’ about the overall session and reference some vague (and often inaccurate) actions such as ‘he touched his nose’ which could suggest that he was either uncomfortable or had an itchy nose.
AI based image analytics on the other hand, can easily process each video frame in a consistent, repeatable manner, and with no observer bios. The objective of my evaluation of Mueller’s testimony was not to determine if he was lying with certainty, but rather to identify recurring patterns of stress that are associated with deception and correlate them to the topics of conversation.
Special counsel Mueller did a great job obfuscating the report details but the large high quality volume of video and audio in his testimony made it possible to analyze the session and find anomalies and various patterns that could provide insight into his mindset.
In this project just as in my related posts 1 and 2, I used the following AI based image analytics, text, and speech analysis tools:
For the text/speech, I used a hybrid approach to word and phrase speech pattern analysis. The textual analysis evaluated these types of speech categories:
I-words (I, Me, My, I’m)
For the video analytics, I established special counsel Mueller’s facial and other video objects baseline using several on-line sources and the main testimony video. The baseline cataloging included his unique facial expressions such as Microexpressions and other visually detectable actions like use of hand gesture, head motion, mouth movement, gaze, etc.
Image 2: Sampling of special counsel Mueller’s Microexpressions such as (L-R): loathing/anger, surprise, fear, happiness
Image 3: Sampling of special counsel Mueller’s’ body dynamics as related to left hand usage
Following the creation of a facial baseline catalog, I proceeded with the ML training using data sets for non-facial activity such as paging through the report folder, eye blink, gaze, etc.
Image 4: Sampling of image set used to train the machine learning (ML) to identify special counsel Mueller flipping pages through his report folders
After the training was completed, I ran the first 15 minutes of special counsel Mueller’s testimony through the engine and performed a search for known classified objects such as him ‘reading the report’.
Imager 5: Sample search results of instances of Mueller looking at the report
I noted the detections and examined several thousand video frames prior, during, and after the detections to capture the actual ground truth. The visual search results of the 15 minute video segment correlated to within a 83% match rate against the baseline catalog created with the ML training set. I then used the missed detections to re-train the ML again and repeated this cycle several times on random video segments of his testimony until the match rate stabilized at about 94%.
In addition to creating a catalog of special counsel Mueller’s microexpressions I also created a library of sequences of his composite facial expressions. These sequences were close consecutively spaced combinations of microexpressions and other body activity that were 0.5-3.5 seconds long. One example for these types of composite expressions was eye flutter combined with ‘lip twitching’ or some other mouth movement.
In this sequence, Mueller typically stared at the speaker while his bottom lip would involuntary twitch or quiver several times or his lips would tighten; he would then break eye contact with the speaker and rotate his head downwards, recompose, then bring his head upwards and re-establish eye contact with the speaker.
Image 6: Sample of a typical special counsel Mueller sequence showing mouth activity and breaking eye contact with the speaker. The context here is Rep Jim Jordan’s asking Mueller to confirm if Joseph Mifsud was interviewed, did he lie, and is he Russian or Western Intelligence
Once I completed calibrating special counsel Mueller’s video object catalog and the library of sequential expressions, I conducted searches for facial anomalies. Anomalies are defined as any variations from his standard single image or sequence patterns such as unusual cycle of head, eye, or mouth movements.
For example, based on his standard detection for “blinking”, special counsel Mueller’s blinking interval baseline was established to be 3–7 seconds with a blinking duration of approximately 1/10th-1/3rd of a second (see Image 7-8).
Image 7: Sample of one baseline feature in special counsel Mueller’s visual object catalog showing his normal blink pattern.
Image 8: Sample detections of special counsel Mueller’s normal blinking pattern throughout his testimony. Special counsel Mueller’s blinking follows a pattern of a full single closure of the eyelid at a 3-7 second interval
Any blinking variation form this base line generated an anomaly that was then evaluated manually before becoming certified as a new pattern of interest. This exception was then further evaluated in the context of the topic of conversation and the microexpressions involved.
One such anomaly was associated with special counsel Mueller’s unusual blinking pattern. On closer examination, it turned out that what on the surface appeared to be unusual blinking was in fact a reoccurring cycle of rapid flutter of the eyelids. This unusual sequence was also at times accompanied by certain head, tongue, and lip movements.
After mapping this ‘Flutter Cycle” to the topic that was being discussed at the time of the event, it became clear that this was some sort of an involuntary display of distress and/or fear. It was so prevalent that it could even be used to predict what questions were being discussed.
Some of the subjects that triggered this ‘Flutter Cycle’ were:
DOJ and FBI media leaks
Christopher Steele, the dossier and its funding sources
Fusion GPS and its work with the DNC, HRC, and foreign governments
Glen Simpson and Natalia Veselnitskaya
The meeting at the Trump Tower
Informants and surveillance (i.e. Mifsud, Downer, Halper, etc.)
The FISA warrants
Image 9: An illustration of special counsel Mueller’s typical Flutter Cycle.
The Flutter Cycle sequence was characterized by 2-5 rapid flutters of the eyelids and an upward eye roll, head, mouth, and accompanying tongue movements. This Flutter Cycle sequence seen in the left side of the collection in Image 10 (also, see 1:26:00 in the video) corresponds to questions by Rep Steve Chabot of Mueller’s investigation of the relationship between Glen Simpson, Natalia Veselnitskaya, and the latter’s visit to Trump Tower.
The same type of events were observed during other pointed inquires such as Rep Louie Gohmert’s challenging special counsel Mueller’s credibility due to his refusal to answer basic questions (see 1:33:30 in the video).
Image 10: (L-R) A sampling of three anomalies a complex facial flutter, lip twitching, and simple eye flutter sequences
Several other interesting anomalies that turned out to be repeating patterns in special counsel Mueller’s facial expression and composite sequences were:
Lip Twitching – Associated with microexpressions such as fear and surprise
Downward Head Nodding – Associated with other defensive posture the was triggered by breaking eye contact with the speaker
Flattened Mouth or Lips – Associated with signs of frustration as in ‘Iwant to answer this question, but I really shouldn’t’
Prolonged Blinkless Stare – Associated with angry and combative response to some question
Imager 11: Samples of special counsel Mueller’s dozens of “flutter cycle” episodes during the Q&A
The Jolly Affable Mueller Not all of special counsel Mueller’s testimony was marked by doom and gloom. On a number of occasions (mostly when talking to Democratic representatives), he showed himself to be charming, in high spirits, engaged, and animated. Mueller had no inhibitions about making remarks regarding the report’s failure to exonerate President Trump and the possibility of persecuting President Trump after he left office. He freely cited legal sources and DOJ procedures and protocols and provided detailed rationale for his team’s action and conclusions.
Image 12: The suave, charming, engaged, and animated Mueller in action
Mueller’s predictable patterns of distress were almost always associated with ‘difficult’ questions on topics such as the role of Fusion GPS, spying on President Trump, and Christopher Steele. Images 13 and 14 show a typical triggering events of a Flutter Cycles.
Image 13: Samples of Mueller’s Flutter Cycle episodes during Q&A session dealing with him leaking report details to the media Image 14: Sample of Mueller’s Flutter Cycle episodes during Q&A session dealing with separating the grand jury materials from the report
Analysis Results Special counsel Mueller’s body language and facial sentiment analysis shows high levels of discomfort and tension when discussing certain parts of the report. He exhibited multiple signs of distress that included:
Multiple Flutter cycles
Mouth quivering cycles
Self shooting and fidgeting behavior
Sudden breaking of eye contact
Rapid downward head movement
Tightening of the mouth and lips
I didn’t have a baseline for incidents where special counsel Mueller was being untruthful. However, the baseline of his normal conversational dynamics show signs of clear distress which strongly suggest that at least from his perspective, not all questions were equal and not all of his answers were factual.
Special counsel Mueller distress patterns consistently overlapped with certain trigger topics and his verbal response to almost all of these interactions was a variation on the “I’m not going to…”. He deviated from this pattern only a handful of times and actively engaged the questioner. One of these back alley knife fight sessions involved Rep Ben Cline’s stating that Andrew Weissmann was running a rogue investigation that was based on flawed legal theory that was overturned unanimously by the Supreme Court.
As the question was being asked, special counsel Mueller became defensive; he shifted uncomfortably in his chair, exhibited his Flutter Cycle, and replaced his poker face and laconic I-word response pattern with a passionate and verbose defense of Weissmann (see 3:19:40 in the video or sound file below).
Image 15: Sample of one of Mueller’s distress patterns that includes his Flutter Cycle and shifting in his seat
Recording 1: Exchange between Rep Cline and Mueller about Weismann’s legal foundation of his obstruction of justice investigation
During this segment which lasted about two minutes, special counsel Mueller argued, spoke over Cline, and attempted several times to repeat his assertions about Weismann. This continued even after the subject of the questions changed to Obama’s culpability in Obstruction of Justice when he announced publicly that the HRC private email server did not pose any threat to national security. Mueller, without much difficulty, exhibited a decent mastery of the report’s content, cited specific areas in it that included a lengthy dissertation and in general tried to rehabilitate himself and his team.
Conclusion The overwhelming majority of special counsel Mueller’s testimony failed to illuminate any of the big questions about the DNC email hack, the genesis of the Steele Dossier, the DNC/Fusion GPS relationship with Russian state actors, and the 2016 surveillance on the Trump team. In fact, his answers raised even more questions about the real power behind the throne and R&R within the special counsel team.
If it is indeed the case, as special counsel Mueller confirmed in multiple answers, that no single individual on his vast team had intimate familiarly with the whole report, then who compiled the final version of the document? Was this just a collation of multiple taskforce reports that were later combined into a single master? And if that is the case, who was the person that harmonized all the individual versions in order to make sure that the index, footnotes, format, dates, people, places, reductions, and events were in sync?
Image 16: The Special Counsel Team and testimony attendees
It is noteworthy that special counsel Mueller continued to play the I-phrase card and refused to address any of the procedural questions about the compilation of the report. Even though, this information had little bearing on the report’s content and that there is nothing classified or proprietary about the way the DOJ writes and edits their documents.
Even though special counsel Mueller attempted to obfuscate the report’s composition methods and authors, the writing style, document layout, context, and several other administrative clues strongly suggest that Andrew Weismann was the architect and Aaron Zebley was chief editor of the document. This is also likely the reason why special counsel Mueller insisted that Zebley be present by his side and be sworn in.
The evidence from the video analytics, speech dynamics, and the decision tree special counsel Mueller used to answer the questions (i.e. question objective vs. answer strategy) shows a decent mental agility and the ability to on demand alternate between complete radio silence and singing like a canary.
To those who believe that special counsel Mueller was just a senile old man with little familiarity with the content of the report, consider the fact that some of his verbose answers show that he had a pretty good grasp of the document. He also artfully navigated the many minefields in the report without blowing up a leg in the process. A few MSM pundits suggested that Mueller’s poor verbal performance should be attributed to cognitive impairment but this argument is inconsistent with his ability to deliver the following:
Selectively discuss specific topics, most of which were prejudicial towards President Trump
Answer questions that almost exclusively supported the impeachment narrative with certainty and conviction
Justify and emphasize specific areas in the report that exonerated his team from claims of bias towards President Trump and instances of hostile conduct by FBI senior management and its agents (i.e. Comey, Strzok, Page, agent 2, and others)
Utilize the “I’m not going to…” strategy to answer any questions about the “insurance policy”
Refuse to address the media leaks that either came from him personally, his direct reports, or his team
Exhibited great mental agility and dexterity during the May 29th, 2019 Mueller news conference
Come up with over 198 different ways of not answering a direct question
The patterns identified by the analytics strongly suggest that all of special counsel Mueller’s behavioral stress patterns matched the typical anxiety profiles and signs of internal struggle that are exhibited by a deceptive suspect during an integration. For the first time in his long bureaucratic career, he found himself at the wrong side of the table with the bright lights in his face and a real possibility of being charged with perjury. For several hours, the fearless hunter became the pray and he clearly didn’t like the experience.
Contextually, the majority of his testimony turned out to be an underhanded attempt to use the Q&A session to justify, promote, and surreptitiously inject political narrative into the public hearing. None of this should come as a surprise as it is the same circular “Impeach Trump” agenda that launched this investigation in the first place. At the end of the day, despite special counsel Mueller’s title and god-like pedigree, it seems that he turned out to be just another DC power broker who placed his bets on the losing presidential candidate.
Image 18: Two pages (a total of 856 words) form the Mueller report dealing with George Papadopoulos being told by Joseph Mifsud about the Russian having “Dirt” on HRC.
Special counsel Mueller’s elaborate 448 page report that took close to two years to complete, cost over 25 million dollars (that’s about $51K per page), involved 19 lawyers, 23 legal researchers, 40 FBI agents, 10 intelligence analysts, 7 forensic accountants, 25 other professional staff, and the unlimited resources of the DOJ, the State department, NSA, and the intelligence community, delivered an indefensible dud.
And it if that is not bad enough, Almost none of the content of the Mueller report can be reconciled with sources like the Ellen Nakashima WaPo June 14, 2016 report about the DNC hack. The dates, timeline of events, the details, and people are completely discombobulated.
Reading the reports, you can’t but stop and appreciate the authors’ Kafkaesque sense of humor. In the example pages shown in Image 18, the report discusses the chain of transmission of the Russian ‘Dirt’ from Joseph Mifsud, to Papadopoulos, to a mysteries western diplomat (Alexander Downer) who then informed the FBI, who naturally became alarmed and started this massive investigation. On the face of it, the document looks solid. It has all of the right trimmings, detailed claims, massive amount of footnotes, intelligence lingo, hush hush sources, and strategic reductions with alarming labels like “Harm to ongoing matter”. It is as convincing as a Vegas levitation magic act.
But, levitating magic acts are always predicated on the audience viewing the scene from a distance and through a carefully controlled field of view–which is exactly what the special counsel Mueller report and testimony turned out to be. Magic doesn’t work if you get a glimpse of the crane and the wires supporting the magician. Once you understand the mechanics of the act, the awe gives way to a letdown.
You can test this premise by substituting any good magic act with the report and special counsel Mueller with any illusionist. Any question you ask the magician about the inner workings of his trick would be deflected using the exact same techniques Special Counsel Mueller used during his testimony. The most important rule in magic is NEVER tell the secret of the trick, just let the magic speak for itself.
Image 19: The levitating magic act
What is ostensibly missing from these two magical pages in Image 18 is that the source of the ‘Dirt’ was none other than Stefan Halper, a paid informant who billed (using DUNS # 078459148) the Federal Government about $656,535 for his services. By the time you factor Halper and Mifsud and their harem of young female assistants, Mifsud and his life of debauchery at his safe house, Downer’s expenses, and at least 11 other IC, CI, and State Department assets that supported Halper in fattening Papadopoulos before he was shish-ka-bobbed by bob, the cost of these two pages to the US taxpayer was probably upwards of a million dollars.
Image 20: The Supposedly dead Mifsud in action and two of his Red Sparrows
So, to those of you who still think that majoring in contemporary English fiction won’t pay the bills, it clearly can! After all, what other line of work pays $1168 per word?
Image 21: Stefan Halper’s government payment record for service provided to the DoD and DOJ from 2016-2018
Summum bonum I have difficulty finding solace in special counsel Mueller’s bragging about the higher good from his recovery of about $40 million from the Paul Manafort persecution. I’m also not sure if we should laugh or cry about the concept of the DOJ becoming a profit center. The problem with the DOJ acting as a collection agency that recovers the cost of prosecution from its targets is the political nature of their victim selection algorithm. Each one of us including the Honorable Mr. Mueller has something in his past, present, or future that could warrant jail time and property seizure. With over 3000 federal and thousands more state laws on the books, we are all guilty of some misdemeanor or a felony. Who in the DOJ then, gets to make the decisions about who/why to persecute and the ultimate greater good? Is it going to be one of the dozens of high power attorneys that regularly walk through the DOJ revolving doors to personally enrich themselves by constantly hopping between government gigs and private practice?
The problem with the whole Manafort affair is that if he was so thoroughly corrupt in 2007, then why didn’t special counsel Mueller investigate him earlier during his 11 year tenure as the director of the FBI. Why did he wait until 2018 to bring these charges?:
“…crimes arising out of payments he received from the Ukrainian government before and during the tenure of President Viktor Yanukovych.”
After all, the DOJ, FBI, and the IC had a supersized file on Manafort going back to 2007, so why wait for all these years?
Image 22: The Triumvirate or Threesome (depending on your view)
Mark Twain once wrote that:
“Anybody can tell lies: there is no merit in a mere lie, [for a good deceit] it must possess art, it must exhibit a splendid & plausible & convincing probability; that is to say, it must be powerfully calculated to deceive.”
Special Counsel Mueller’s report doesn’t come close to Twain’s definition of deceptive genius, but it does have a certain kitschy synthetic Disneyland feel to it. In many ways its similar to another secretive report, the Protocols of the Elders of Zion. Both, share the same conspiratorial elements, treachery, mysterious meetings, made-up events and agendas, secret societies, informants, and intrigue.
All of this hush-hush secret agent man stuff in the report seems very mysterious, but at its core, it’s really a simple criminal matter. If you’ve ever been a juror on a criminal trial, you should be familiar with the routine. If you haven’t, it goes a s follows:
The prosecution and the defense present their case with an opening statement
Both show evidence and present witnesses
Both cross-examine witnesses
Each side delivers their closing arguments
The jury goes into deliberation and comes up with a verdict
In any normal criminal trial in the US, they typically follow the Federal Rules of Evidence, there is no such thing as secret testimony that can’t be verified or evidence that can’t be shown to the jury. If the DA doesn’t want to expose his sources/methods then they get excluded from trial. If witnesses can’t be cross-examined, their testimony is inadmissible. It’s as simple as that. The bottom line is that if a prosecutor can’t/won’t show the evidence for a charge he has no case. Image 22: Rep Gowdy and DOJ IG Horowitz Q&A session regarding Peter Strzok’s and Lisa Page’s involvement in the Mueller and HRC Email investigations
So, no, I don’t think we can classify special counsel Mueller’s report as a deceptive masterpiece, I would rather categorize it as more of a ‘true story’ type of a tale.
“movies take a long time to make, but they’re high impact. Twitter takes a second to do, but there’s not a lot of info there. One on one coaching is high enough bandwidth that it can change your life and make you cry, in real time, and the Mona Lisa, while less bits per second than a TV show, has enough emotional bandwidth to matter, even if it’s 400 years old.”
This is a great observation. Clearly, bandwidth and synchronicity matter. But what about the relationship between messaging media cost, the time needed to develop it, and its ability to effectively saturate a large population? Is it possible to create effective memes and circulate them widely through 140 character messages? And what about the impact of all of these factors on future social media functionality? Is social media headed towards platform convergence or towards divergence?
Messaging Cost, Development Time, and Outreach Potential Consider a typical Hollywood mega blockbuster like the Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End. This 169-minute long meme bomb carries an enormous amount of content. Every scene was carefully designed to keep audiences glued to their seats. Its production took two years, it required the creative talents of hundreds of individuals, and it cost about $300 million dollars to make (roughly $30K per second of movie). It grossed over $963 million in revenue, which amounts to 320% return rate—not pocket change by any means. The movie messaging medium is so well optimized that it is capable of generating a significant amount of secondary revenue and reach worldwide audiences by sheer inertia. Just think about all the spinoff industries that spring into life when a major movie like this comes out: toys, music, party accessories, food, costumes, books, etc.
If you follow a reasonably well proven formula, (standard plot, big name actors, expensive sets, and lots of special effects), you are almost guaranteed at least a 2:1 ROI ratio and a good chance of producing a number of sequels to your masterpiece.
So it does seem that there is a correlation between how much content is packed into the message and its memetic effectiveness. The movie messaging model (see quadrant 1 in the graph below), is based on a tremendous investment of time and resources. The strategy is to build the best product possible, market it well, and then fire-and-forget it. The forget part has to do with the passive nature of this medium; the audience has no interaction with the content and consumes the messaging passively.
On the other hand, social media messaging like blogs, e-mails, Twitter, etc., (see quadrant 3 in the graph above), can be produced instantly and with little investment or skill. But it’s also difficult to get a quantifiable ROI from it, (ergo, the raise of snake oil salesmen social media marketing gurus). Another observation is that synchronous social media messaging depends on an interactive and free feedback loop. Users demand the ability to interact in near-real time with their network, but they refuse to pay for the privilege.
From an evolutionary point of view, it seems that the quadrant 1 and 3 messaging mediums represent a form of r/K selection classification. Each trades between quantity and quality. The focus in quadrant 1 is to increase the quality of the content with higher expense per message. The focus in quadrant 3 is to increase the quantity of the content with a corresponding reduction in quality and lower expense per message.
Content Developers and Messaging Strategy The chart data suggests that there is an inverse relationship between the effectiveness of content distribution and the viewer’s exposure time to the message. It seems that quadrant 1 messaging mediums are the most effective in terms of meme creation, distribution speed, and outreach.
Content developers are aware of the limitations of each medium and have developed interesting coping strategies (sometimes reversing r/K selection) in order to leverage various messaging toolsets to promote their content.
For example, the K-selected movie, television, theater production, and book publishing industries leverage social media primarily to get a short term engagement with potential audiences. The ultimate objective is not to create a long term social community, but instead to lure users in to consume their product. Once the product is out on the market, most of the related social media interaction around it stops.
A good illustration of this was evident for the movie Coroline. Eight weeks before the movie release date, one of the characters, the Great Bobinsky, created a blog and started posting on a weekly basis, clearly so as to create a groundswell and buzz. Three weeks after the movie went live, official posting to the blog stopped—to the great dismay of its myriad followers—and Mr. Bobinsky announced:
Thank you for being friends of Bobinsky…Have beet and think of me. Until we meet again. Mr B. signing off.
In complete opposition to movie producers, the r-selected social media authors use content and platforms like Picasa and YouTube to build long term relationships. Their strategy is to create an intimate family environment that will foster a long term engagement with the target audience.
Social Media Box of the Future In terms of future direction, there is strong indication that just like Apple successfully consolidated GPS, MP3, gaming console, and phone into a single device, so too the social network platforms of the near future will converge on traditional services.
The future social network platforms will yield a service that offers a suite of products like IM, voice and video chat, conferencing, on-line collaboration, e-commerce, content subscription, and personal reputation management, sort of a LinkedIn/Facebook/Pandora service with hybrid Skype and PayPal/Google wallet-like capability. And all of this optimized and available on a mobile device.
The only question that remains is will this future platform be built on top of one of the current products or will it be mashed and/or assembled from existing services.